First Quarter 2023 Market Newsletter

Markets

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Stocks and bonds rose in the first quarter of 2022. Commodity prices fell. In stocks, there was a reversal, as industries that fell last year did well this year and vice versa.
The US economy is showing mixed signs with employment still strong but manufacturing, services and the real estate sectors are coming under pressure.
The Fed has said that curbing inflation is a priority. It has used other tools than interest rates to stabilize the banking sector that came under pressure when a few banks became insolvent.
The operating earnings of companies in the S&P 500 fell by 5% last year but are expected to increase by 11% in 2023. The forward Price Earnings multiple of the S&P 500 is higher than its 25-year average but historically it has produced a positive return when trading at this multiple.
The recent collapse of the Silicon Valley bank has many direct and indirect lessons for investors.

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