Read the full First Quarter 2024 Market Newsletter HERE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Global stocks rose in the first quarter and the rally in US stocks broadened as stocks other than the ‘Magnificent 7’ joined in. High interest rates and concerns about a recession hurt stocks of small companies.
- The US economy is sailing smoothly so far. There are plenty of jobs. Both consumers and companies continue to spend. The manufacturing sector has recovered and is growing like the services sector.
- Inflation has declined from the peak in 2022, but the last mile to bring it to a level that would be acceptable to the Federal Reserve has been bumpy. This has led to uncertainty among investors about the direction and magnitude of interest rates.
- Declining valuation of office spaces is a concern as it could adversely impact municipal finances as well as smaller banks. However, as of now the situation seems well contained.
- US companies are expected to report that earnings grew 3.2% in the first quarter.
- Currently, stocks are priced at 21 times their expected earnings over the next 12 months, which is above the 30-year average.
- Historically, no matter which party got the reins to the White House, stocks have appreciated over time.
- Historically, reaching an all-time was not a reason for stocks to drop. In the past, they have continued to appreciate.